Bitcoin may be rallying but that doesn’t mean the bear market is over. Not yet, anyway.
A new report from asset manager Fidelity said that while bitcoin was behaving like it did in previous cycles, it could still hit a bottom in November.
Bitcoin started rallying in mid-August after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases. The asset’s price recently stood at close to $81,639, up nearly 30% over a 30-day period.
Some have since argued that bitcoin is out of its bear market. The coin touched a record high in October last year, hitting $126,080.
“Given bitcoin’s recent performance, the bottom could already have occurred in July,” Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, wrote.
“It could also drop again to make another new low in November or later,” he continued, adding that bitcoin cycles have historically not been precisely four years long, so they “aren’t reliable for timing the market.”
Throughout most of June and July, bitcoin’s volatility was particularly muted, and the coin traded below $65,000.
But that all changed in August after the Treasury Department’s announcement, which has since brought the so-called debasement trade back in the picture again.
To get an idea of where bitcoin moves next, Kuiper argued that investors should pay attention to what happens with the crypto Clarity Act. Proponents argue it could provide “greater regulatory certainty and support continued innovation in the U.S. digital asset ecosystem,” he wrote.
President Donald Trump in August urged lawmakers to get the long-awaited crypto market structure bill over the line, helping spur bitcoin’s run. The president called the draft “very, very powerful” after meeting with crypto industry bigwigs at the White House.
The digital asset industry has long called for clear rules on how regulators should treat bitcoin, stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies.
Lawmakers will vote on the bill this month.