Aave’s lending plan could lose money without defaults

Aave’s proposed institutional lending business would put crypto collateral on both sides of the financing chain. Institutions would pledge Bitcoin or Ether for dollar loans, while the organization governing the Aave lending protocol would initially borrow those dollars against a separate pool of its own crypto assets.

Aave Labs’ September 30 clarification identifies an Aave Labs entity as the contractual lender and confirms that the DAO-funded route would pay prevailing Aave V3 stablecoin borrowing rates. That makes the borrower’s ability to meet a margin call only one test of the business. The funding position could face its own collateral pressure or rising interest costs while an institutional loan remains current.

Aave’s governing organization, the DAO, is considering two proposed funding authorizations: a 25 million issuance bucket for GHO, Aave’s stablecoin, and up to $25 million of USDC or USDT borrowing against DAO assets. The scope includes BTC and ETH. The combined $50 million request is capacity for lending against BTC and ETH; actual outstanding loans remain undisclosed.

Aave Labs reports approximately $300 million of indicated demand and describes a $20 million lead BTC facility. The demand pipeline and lead facility are indicative, with actual drawdowns still to be reported.

A decline in crypto prices could weaken both collateral pools, while rising stablecoin borrowing costs could narrow the DAO’s interest spread. The resulting pressure would depend on the assets pledged, each position’s terms and how quickly institutional loan rates can be adjusted.

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Two collateral books, two repayment obligations

The September 24 proposal would initially fund lending by pledging DAO-owned WETH and WBTC, with AAVE permitted up to 50% of collateral at each pledge. WETH and WBTC represent wrapped Ether and Bitcoin. The DAO would borrow USDC or USDT on Aave V3 and use that financing for institutional facilities.

Separately, the institutional borrower would place BTC or ETH with a qualified custodian. That collateral would secure the borrower’s loan under a Master Loan Agreement with an Aave Labs entity. A three-party Account Control Agreement would connect the lender, borrower and custodian.

These are different assets pledged for different debts. The DAO’s onchain pledge would be separate from the borrower’s custody account. The proposal says borrower collateral would never be rehypothecated, or pledged onward.

That structure allows an institution to obtain liquidity while retaining its crypto exposure, subject to margin terms. It also leaves the DAO with an onchain debt that has to remain adequately collateralized independently of the institution’s repayment schedule.

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The proposed custodian would monitor borrower collateral, issue margin calls and liquidate if those calls were unmet. Legal security interests and title transfer on default are intended to let the lender direct a sale and repayment. The documents describe how enforcement would work; a record of enforcement under these facilities remains to be reported.

Typical initial loan-to-value ratios would be 60% to 75%, according to Aave Labs. A loan-to-value ratio compares the amount borrowed with the collateral’s value. Each facility’s margin trigger, cure period and liquidation terms would determine how far collateral could fall before enforcement.

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A broad crypto decline could weaken both books. Falling BTC or ETH would increase pressure on an institution’s custodied collateral, while declines in the DAO’s WBTC, WETH or AAVE could reduce the cushion supporting its stablecoin borrowing.

The proposal explicitly recognizes the risk of AAVE weakening when BTC-backed loans come under stress. Its 50% cap limits AAVE’s share when collateral is pledged. Management of subsequent changes in that share would sit with the Aave Finance Committee, led by TokenLogic, which would also monitor funding-position health.

Onchain funding also has its own collateral requirements. Aave’s borrowing documentation explains that a borrower must maintain sufficient collateral and monitor its health factor, a measure of the position’s protection against liquidation. More collateral or partial repayment can be needed as that protection deteriorates.